AP Scholars: Cherry-picked Statistics

I studied logic in college as part of obtaining a minor degree in Philosophy. And among the most valuable lessons learned was the recognition of fallacies. Detecting fallacious arguments is key to winning your own argument. One of the most common fallacies is “cherry-picking.” According to Wikipedia cherry picking may be defined as:

The act of pointing to individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position.

And for the past three years right around this time of year I have read in my Garden City News how the number of AP scholars at Garden City high school has risen. And while prima facie that is a good thing it is also meaningless information. The number of yearly AP scholars is not relevant information—the percentage of AP scholars from year to year is. Because while the number of AP scholars may have risen it does not necessarily follow that the percentage of AP scholars has risen also—in fact the number of AP scholars could have increased and the percentage could have remained equal or worse decreased. This is because every year the district not only adds more AP courses but also expands enrollment. So since students are eligible to become scholars based on the number of AP courses they take  it is little surprise that the number of AP scholars has increased with the increased opportunity to enroll---but it does not follow that student performance is any better. Quality and quantity are not equal partners. The percentage of AP scholars per year is the determiner of how well students are performing—not the raw number.

And the fact that this statistic (percentages) is conspicuously ignored during the Board of Education presentations is troublesome on two accounts—the first being that perhaps the Superintendent of Curriculum (a former math teacher) was not sharp-minded enough to broadcast such meaningful information to the public or equally or more disturbing is that she knew the meaningful information but chose to ignore it so it would not negatively reflect back on her administration. Either way it does not bode well. It shows a grand lack of transparency--cherry picking at its finest.

An old Trident gum commercial boasted that 4/5 dentists surveyed recommended Trident. What they didn’t advertise is how many dentists chose not to be surveyed or the number of dentists that had no preference at all. So the 4/5 statistic is as meaningful as saying Adelphi has the highest number of students on the Dean’s list of any university in Garden City. Because while that statistical fact (i.e. Dean’s list students)  is true, the information is meaningless as there is only one university in Garden City. And while cherry picking is not the speaking of untruth, it is deception nonetheless. It is selective lying which leads to erroneous conclusions.